Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
